Table
of Contents
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CHAPTER ONE -
INTRODUCTION
- 1.1 Purpose
- 1.2 Scope of the Guide
- 1.3 Rationale for Using Bayesian
Regression in C-SHRP
- 1.4 Overview of the Bayesian
Regression Approach
- 1.5 Bayesian Regression Software
- 1.6 Overview of the Bayesian
Regression Template
CHAPTER TWO -
10 STEP TEMPLATE - MODEL DESIGN
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2 Decide What You Want to Model
- Step 1
- 2.3 Select a Dependent Variable -
Step 2
- 2.4 Select Model Type - Step 3
- 2.5 Select Independent Variables -
Step 4
- 2.5.1 Enumerating Independent
Variables
- 2.5.2 Evaluating Independent
Variables Subjectively
- 2.5.3 Evaluating Independent
Variables Using Correlation
- 2.6 Postulate Functional Form -
Step 5
CHAPTER THREE
- 10 STEP TEMPLATE - DATA AND ANALYSIS
- 3.1 Develop Prior & Assemble
Data - Step 6
- 3.2 Procedure for Deriving
Data-Based Priors and Model-Based Priors
- 3.2.1 Data-Based Priors
- 3.2.2 Model-Based Priors
- 3.3 Methods for Deriving
Subjective Priors
- 3.3.1 Incremental Orthogonal
Method
- 3.3.2 The Full Matrix Orthogonal
Method
- 3.3.3 The Card Sort Method
- 3.3.4 The Questionnaire Method
- 3.4 Procedure for the Full Matrix
Orthogonal Method
- 3.4.1 Developing the Encoding
Package
- 3.4.2 Choose Experts
- 3.4.3 Conduct Interviews
- 3.4.4 Validate Results
- 3.4.5 Analyze Pseudo Data
- 3.4.6 Assemble Experimental Data
- 3.5 Perform Bayesian Regression -
Step 7
- 3.5.1 Performing Classical
Regression Using XLBayes
- 3.5.2 Performing an N-Prior
Bayesian Regression Using XLBayes
- 3.5.3 Performing a G-Prior
Bayesian Regression Using XLBayes
CHAPTER FOUR -
10 STEP TEMPLATE - MODEL EVALUATION
- 4.1 Use Model to Predict
Performance - Step 8
- 4.1.1 Compare Model Performance
- 4.1.2 Selecting a Representative
Prior
- 4.2 Evaluating Model - Step 9
- 4.2.1 Data/Prior/Posterior PDF
Plots
- 4.2.2 Understanding PDF Plot
Results
- 4.2.3 PDF Plot Results for the
Rutting Example
- 4.2.4 Evaluating the Model
- 4.2.4.1 Rational Sign
- 4.2.4.2 Rational Magnitude
- 4.2.4.3 t-Statistic
- 4.2.4.4 Which Information Does the
Posterior Reflect?
- 4.2.4.5 Standard Error of the
Posterior Model
- 4.3 Iterate Model - Step 10
APPENDIX A:
BAYES THEOREM
APPENDIX B:
BAYESIAN REGRESSION THEORY
APPENDIX C :
ANSWERS TO COMMON QUESTIONS
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